The anger, the anxiety, the fear, and the outrage expressed
daily regarding Trump versus Clinton can be, as Jane Austen would say, lowering
to the spirits. One cure for me is to go to FiveThirtyEight and check out the election
forecast. There I find the calm, cool rationality of a statistical model
that predicts the outcome of the race. No yelling, just polling.
FiveThirtyEight (or 538), named for the number of electors
in the U.S. Electoral College, correctly predicted the results of the 2008 presidential
election in 49 of 50 states, along with all 35 Senate races. In 2012, 538 accurately
predicted the presidential winner in all 50 states and the winners in 31 of 33
Senate races. The predictions are
based on an aggregation of polls that are then weighted based on the
pollster rankings, the sample sizes, and their recency and then adjusted
various ways. The mind behind the site belongs to Nate Silver, a native of East
Lansing.
On the site, you can hover over each state on the map and
see each candidate’s chances of winning that state. Click on the state if you
want a breakdown of the polling in that state. Visiting the site will improve
your day no matter which candidate you are rooting for. Either you will rejoice
that your candidate is predicted to win, or, if your candidate is predicted to
lose, that sobering fact will allay agitation, compose you, and consequently
make you happier (Jane Austen again).